Dr. David Bennett argues why French leadership is so important with regard to saving Ukraine.
The Russo-Ukrainian War (2022- ) is unfortunately heading in the direction of a Russian victory. Russian President Vladimir Putin is already drafting over one-hundred and sixty-thousand men to go to the Ukrainian front so that Ukraine can be knocked out of the war in an offensive which will probably be launched by no later than July of this year. It is difficult to envisage that the beleaguered and depleted Ukrainians by then will then have sufficient manpower to resist this offensive so that they will consequently lose their independence.
Should Ukraine fall, Russia will have a geographic base with which to proceed to militarily conquer other central and eastern European nations as well as the countries which constitute Scandinavia. Putin will of course try to reassure European nations that he has no aggressive designs against them as he subdues a conquered Ukraine.
However, with the United States probably becoming an isolationist nation, the Russians will be able to proceed on further wars of conquest. There is the calculation that because the Ukrainians have ‘bought time’ for Europe that the European nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will be ready to effectively resist any future Russian aggression after Kyiv has fallen.
The above flawed premise pre-supposes that the Europeans will be sufficiently united to withstand Russian disruption tactics which have already upended previous post-1945 orthodoxies in international affairs such as that the United States would defend Europe against any future Russian military aggression.
Just as Putin successfully helped engineer the 2016 election of Donald Trump as US president, which has helped lead to the fundamental shift in American foreign policy, the Russian leader has the strategic and tactical skill to re-orientate the politics of individual European nations. It is therefore not beyond the realms of future possibility that Putin could encourage Hungary’s pro-Russian government to disrupt the territorial status-quo in Europe.
There are already signs that Türkiye’s pro-Putin president, Recep Erdogan is becoming an outright dictator as a prelude to undertaking future territorial expansion in the Middle East.
The fundamental point which needs to be made at this juncture is that the dynamics of European nations can be exploited by Putin so that Russia will be able to engineer European dis-unity thereby facilitating further wars of conquest by Moscow. This process of engineering discord and consequent conquest in Europe by Russia is not an easy one, but Putin has the demonstrated political skill to accomplish this.
Why the French Connection is so Important!
France is a nation which is particularly vulnerable to Putin’s disruption tactics. Alas, France has a pro-Putin far-right which could be elected to power in the future. Should France have a future Eurosceptic government then it is not beyond the realms of possibility that such a regime could adopt a position (similar to that of the Trump administration) regarding Russian conquest, which ranges from being accepting to being supportive.
The application of Russian disruption tactics to French politics cannot be discounted because France is the main nation in Europe which can facilitate the European unity which will be necessary if Russian aggression is to be successfully countered. This is because France has an independent nuclear deterrent which can be utilized to deter Russia from resorting to the application of its tactical nuclear weapons.
Alas, Great Britain does not have an independent nuclear deterrent because for London to operate its Trident nuclear missiles requires American technical assistance and therefore US permission. Given the Trump administration’s pro-Putin stance this American support for Britian applying its nuclear deterrent might not be forthcoming.
Nevertheless, Britian can still help France to garner a European Coalition of the Willing to save Ukraine. However, such a coalition will have to be assembled relatively quickly while the war still rages in Ukraine. This is because the future onset of Russian disruption tactics to fatally undermine European unity cannot be discounted.
It might be pointed out that Paris and London have already assembled a European Coalition of the Willing. Unfortunately, this coalition is operating on the incorrect premise that there will be an American mediated settlement to the Russo-Ukrainian War which will allow for the deployment of coalition (‘Re-Assurance’) troops in Ukraine following a peace settlement.
However, due to the Trump administration’s neo-isolationist agenda, the Americans will only string the Europeans along with the false narrative that Washington will mediate with the Russians to reach a peace settlement to the Russo-Ukrainian War. As the Trump administration plays for time, the Russians will launch their Spring military offensive which due to insufficient manpower, the Ukrainians will unfortunately succumb.
Why Time is of the Essence !
To prevent the above cited horrifying scenario from occurring, the European Coalition of the Willing should now deploy troops to western Ukraine while this war is currently under way.
Because the Ukrainians are currently tying the Russians down in the east of their nation, the logistical challenges of deploying European troops in western Ukraine can be surmounted. Concerning the Trump administration’s anticipated hostility toward a European military deployment in western Ukraine, this can be achieved by simply ignoring Washington!
The deployment of European troops to western Ukraine will not necessarily mean that they immediately engage in military combat with the Russians because there will still be too much physical distance for this to occur. However, the arrival of European troops in western Ukraine will establish an effective practical physical barrier so that Russia cannot advance any further into Europe.
A Diplomatic Solution? Putting the Horse Before the Cart
The prompt deployment of European troops in western Ukraine does not mean that a diplomatic solution to the Russo-Ukrainian War should not be sought. However, neither the Putin regime nor the Trump administration want to negotiate a diplomatic solution to the Russo-Ukrainian War so that pressure must be brought to bear on them both to end this war of aggression.
Russia is currently in a beleaguered military state, but Putin is marshalling fresh resources to launch a new offensive against Ukraine. Consequently, while Europe is still relatively militarily strong enough, the Coalition of the Willing must utilize its current capacity to save Ukraine.
This scenario will hopefully occur under French leadership because France possesses an independent nuclear deterrent. The existence of this French nuclear deterrent will help facilitate the deployment of European Coalition of the Willing troops to western Ukraine so that further Russian aggression can be blocked in Europe.
It should not be forgotten that the Russians might have overrun Europe in the early 1920s had it not been for Poland’s victory in the Polish-Soviet War of 1919-1921. This Polish victory came with the invaluable French assistance which included the despatch of a brilliant young French army officer named Charles De Gaulle. Furthermore, Nazi Germany might have been quickly defeated in 1938/1939 had France not abandoned its Central European allies of the Little Entente by signing up to the disastrous Munich Agreement that year.
So, in a simialr vein France must not miss the opportunity of standing up to tyrants by appeasing them. This is now particularly the case because the United States cannot be relied upon to come to Europe's aid against Russia. For this reason, France must take the lead in helping save Ukraine.
So, in a similar vein, France must not miss the opportunity of standing up to tyrants by appeasing them. This is now particularly the case because the United States cannot be relied upon to come Europe’s aid against Putin’s Russia. For this reason, France must take the lead in helping to save Ukraine.