Australia is at a fundamental crossroads with regards to its economic future. It is therefore argued by Dr. David Bennett that it is in the best interests of the nation, that the Liberal Party does not allow its internal debate over the 2050 Net Zero Emissions Target to destroy itself.
It is time to see through the charade which is currently convulsing the Liberal Party regarding the adoption of a Net Zero Emissions Target by 2050. The ‘controversy’ concerning this avowed target is nothing more than a pretext by which the hard right of the Liberal Party is trying to force moderates out of the party. This intended purge on the part of the Liberal Party’s hard right is being undertaken so that Regionalisation can later be introduced and so that they (i.e. the hard right) will have the party brand name and consequent voting base in order to run the new super regional councils.
As has been in argued in previous Social Action Australia (SAA) articles, Regionalisation will see mega councils eventually replace Australian states. For Regionalisation to be facilitated, Section 51 of the Australian Constitution, which sets out the powers of the Commonwealth Parliament, will have to be expanded to include responsibility for local government. Such an amendment to the Constitution must be approved by popular referendum in at least four of the six Australian states.
The major problem for the hard right of the Liberal Party and the powers that be within the Nationals Party, is that such a referendum on amending Section 51 will probably fail. This is because too many people in the know who are pro-states rights will mount an effective campaign against Section 51 being amended should such a referendum be held.
Unfortunately, in the process of seeking the unattainable (i.e. amending Section 51 of the Constitution) the hard right will have fatally eroded the future viability of both the Liberal and Nationals’ parties. It is therefore better for the anti-state elements within the two aforementioned coalition parties, that they fall in behind the federal Opposition Leader Sussan Ley. For if she is deposed as Liberal leader the moderates within her party will probably split away, therefore destroying the contemporary Liberal Party.
Alternatively, if Susan Ley prevails then hard right elements within the Liberal Party may defect to the Nationals Party. However, this would still be a futile outcome because Regionalisation will probably not occur because constitutional referendums in Australia rarely, if ever pass, when there is concerted opposition.
The Marvels of Succession Planning
Consequently, the better scenario for the Liberal Party (and for Australian democracy) is that deal-making be undertaken on the basis that Regionalisation will not ever be introduced. Succession planning could therefore be implanted by which the current federal deputy Liberal leader, Ted O’Brien graciously steps down in favour of a leading figure from the hard-right, such as Angus Taylor, Andrew Hastie or Senator Jacinta Price.
A new federal deputy Liberal leader who comes from the party’s hard right could then publicly pledge their loyalty to Susan Ley as the Opposition Leader between now and the next federal election. As part of this deal-making process, Susan Ley could privately undertake to retire as Opposition Leader if the coalition does not substantially improve its position at the next federal election.
If there is to be a successor to Susan ley as Liberal leader following the next federal election, his or her deputy, should also come from a rival faction so as to minimize the chances of a future Liberal Party split.
How The Nationals Can Still Redeem Themselves
As for the rent-seeking elements within the federal Nationals Party they should realize that their party is strongest when it is in coalition with the Liberals under a Westminster parliamentary system. Historically, this was illustrated when the New South Wales branch of the Nationals Party allowed the Liberals to retain the leading position within the state coalition despite the Liberal Party being decimated by the 1978 and 1981 state elections in the so-called ‘Wranslides’.
The New South Wales Nationals during this period in the 1970s and 1980s strongly attacked the Wran government which helped the Liberals become a viable opposition party following the 1984 state election and to eventually win government in 1988. This support by the New South Wales Nationals was very helpful to the Liberals because there was a stage when a majority of parliamentary members of the state Liberal Party room had served either as leader or deputy leader at one time or another! Such a pattern of leadership churn could re-occur for the contemporary federal Liberals if Susan Ley is deposed as party leader.
Also relevant to the issue of continued Liberal Party viability in relation to the dynamic of state politics, is the catastrophic (but still generally unseen) economic position of the Victorian economy. Consequently, the federal coalition could win most of the parliamentary seats in Victoria by the time of the next federal election, due in 2028.
Australia’s Precarious Trading Position
It should also be pointed out that the federal ALP Albanese government is also vulnerable, and this could tremendously help the Liberals if they were to remain a viable party in the short to medium term. For the acute problem which Australia currently faces is that our trading position with Communist China is possibly about to become very disadvantageous.
This looming Australian trade crisis with China is because there are substantial iron/ore deposits in the West African nation of Guinea which Beijing could access by providing the necessary capital for exports to be facilitated. Alas, for Australia, it is only a matter of time before this will occur!
It should be pointed out that Australia has been able to maintain its high standard of living in spite of the de-industrializing impacts of the respective Hawke and Howard eras due to its lucrative export of minerals to China. Consequently, it must be a priority of the Albanese government to re-position this nation economically by the time that China can access Guinea’s iron/ore deposits.
It is not as though some of Australia’s senior political leaders are unaware of this fundamental threat to the nation’s living standards. Alarmingly, there are still rent-seeking elements within the nation’s political elite who envision receiving capital from mainland China as Australia’s trading position substantially declines. According to this perspective, future super regional councils could be a direct recipient of such capital inflows.
However, there is no guarantee that Regionalisation will ever be introduced because referendums to amend the constitution rarely succeed when there is concerted opposition. Therefore, Australia needs a re-directed focus on the part of its senior leadership to fundamentally adjust to our impending changed trading relationship with China. It is in pursuit of achieving this important objective that SAA advocates that the Liberals do not depose Susan Ley as their leader.
Caveats in Relation to Australia Adopting a 2050 Net Zero Emissions Target
Currently, Susan Ley has been placed in an invidious position by rent-seeking elements within her own party over the issue of the 2050 Net Zero Emissions Target. The current circuit-breaker to this fundamental, if not strategically generated problem, is for the federal Opposition Leader to endorse the 2050 net zero emissions target but only on the basis that it can be demonstrated that the replacement renewable technologies are;
- clearly able to provide an energy capacity that is at least the equivalent to the fossil fuel process it is replacing.
- The cost to consumers of the replacement technologies is at least equivalent to what it is replacing.
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This approach will require a carefully managed and evolutionary scientific methodology to achieve a non-disruptive implementation of the new renewable technologies. The corollary to this process is that if both of the aforementioned conditions are not met, then the renewable proposal will not be introduced until it can be demonstrated that it will meet these requirements.
It is a pity that the rent-seeking elements within both the Coalition and the Australian Labor Party (ALP) have not demonstrated the same skill regarding the renewable revolution as they are in attempting to stealthily introduce Regionalisation.