The May 21st 2022 federal election was not surprising in that it resulted in an Australian Labor Party (ALP) victory. However, the ALP won just over thirty percent of the nationwide primary vote. Therefore, the role of Greens Party preferences was crucial in delivering the ALP victory, albeit with a narrow parliamentary majority.
However, despite this narrow parliamentary majority (seventy-seven seats to the ALP out of one hundred and fifty seats) the May 2022 federal election might go down in history as a transformational one due to its impact on the Liberal Party. Political historians may mark the 2022 federal election as a political earthquake in which the Liberal Party completed the process of being transformed into a hard right neo-liberal political party.
This transformational process was reflected and was partially facilitated by the Liberals losing six blue ribbon seats to the so-called ‘teal’ independents who were partly funded by the Climate 200 organisation headed by the businessman Simon Holmes a Court. The most dramatic and profound impact of the ‘teal’ successes was Monique Ryan’s electoral victory in the inner eastern Melbourne suburban seat of Kooyong against the then Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg.
Josh Frydenberg’s defeat to this ‘teal’ independent was almost as important as the overall election result. This was because Josh Frydenberg’s defeat virtually ensured that Peter Dutton, the Defence Minister in the Morrison government, subsequently became the Opposition Leader, thereby consolidating the transformation of the Liberal Party into a neo-liberal political party. The defeat of Josh Frydenberg also means that talented people such as him will be wary about putting themselves forward for future Liberal Party pre-selection, which is another significant outcome of his defeat.
Furthermore, the defeat of Josh Frydenberg also signified that no matter how much you effectively represent your local community or serve the nation you will not necessarily be re-elected. For Josh Frydenberg, along with Peter Costello, were Australia’s most effective federal Treasurers. It should not be forgotten that the Covid pandemic which hit Australia and the world in the first quarter of 2020 could have plunged Australia into its worst ever socio-economic crisis.
The potential disruption to Australia’s service sector was massive due to the social isolation constraints wrought by the Covid pandemic crisis. The Morrison government’s response of introducing Job Keeper, which subsidised the payment of wages while employees were temporarily laid off was brilliant!
This policy response also showed that during a steep economic crisis, even centre-right governments become Keynesian. Therefore, instead of Australia being plunged into the throes of massive and debilitating unemployment, Australia recorded the highest employment rate since 1974! The Morrison government also knew when to turn off the financial assistance so that Australia could transition back to socio-economic normalcy.
The Morrison Government’s Inhospitable Political Climate
The question therefore emerges as to why the Morrison/Frydenberg government was voted out? One of the important reasons why this government was removed was its perceived ineffectiveness when it came to countering human induced climate change. However, under the Morrison government Australia had achieved a twenty percent reduction in emissions. Furthermore, for a nation which produces less than two percent of the world’s emissions it was ill-advised for the Morrison government to have committed to an unachievable net zero emissions target by 2050.
This policy commitment only served to legitimatise the misperception that Australia is in a ‘climate emergency’ and that even more has to be done to combat human induced climate change. This is in spite of the fact the world’s two leading emitters, Communist China and India are currently doing little of practical consequence to counter this phenomenon.
It was this perceived inaction on the part of the Morrison government regarding human induced climate change which saw the Greens Party win three more federal seats in the 2022 federal election in addition to the seat of Melbourne which their federal leader Adam Bandt holds. The six seats won by the so-called teals can also be attributed to the indoctrination which a predominately left-wing media has conducted concerning human induced climate change as part of the so-called culture wars. The impact of this massive media bias was such that even in the wealthiest geographical part of Melbourne, the federal seat of Higgins, fell to the ALP due to Greens preferences!!
That is not to say that there are not strategists within the federal coalition’s ranks who are politically savvy when it comes to effectively fighting the culture wars. For despite the success of the ‘teals’, the Greens and ALP in snaring blue-ribbon Liberal seats the coalition almost won the 2022 federal election! A political strategy was employed whereby there was dog-whistling by some Liberals (including Prime Minister Scott Morrison) to lower-income earning voters in outer suburban seats who are socially conservative. This political dog-whistling has been analysed and dubbed in previous Social Action Australia (SAA) articles as the Lasch political strategy.
Unleashing the Lasch Political Strategy
The late Professor Christopher Lasch (1932-1994) was an American political scientist who astutely appreciated that much of the lower middle class and the upper working class were socially conservative. As such, Lasch argued that right wing political parties could win over working-class voters at the expence of left-wing political parties. Professor Lasch’s assertion was most vividly apparent in the 1980s with regard to the phenomenon of the so-called Reagan Democrats where millions of working- class Americans voted for President Ronald Reagan.
Australia’s version of the Reagan Democrats was the so-called ‘Howard Battlers’. The application of a Lasch political strategy was most effectively demonstrated in 2001 with the so-called Tampa affair when in August that year the Howard government refused to allow a Norwegian ship carrying predominately Afghan refugees into Australian waters. This incident was a dog whistle to induce-middle class/upper working-class voters to transfer their support from the ALP to the coalition which they did in sufficient numbers to allow the latter to shamefully win the November 2001 federal election.
During the April/May 2022 federal election campaign the then Prime Minister, Scott Morrison tepidly attempted to apply a Lasch political strategy by publicly voicing support for the comments made by *Katherine Deves,[1] the Liberal candidate for the federal Sydney seat of Warringah concerning transgender children participating in sport.
Prime Minister Morrison’s endorsement of Deves’ comments was a dog whistle to lower socio-economic voters in the outer suburbs which nearly won enough of them over to the Liberal Party so that the coalition could have achieved another political miracle by winning the May 2022 federal election.
Scott Morrison was constrained in the application of a Lasch political strategy because of the threat that the ‘teals’ and the Greens Party posed in blue ribbon Liberal seats. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Morrison still applied this Lasch type of political manoeuvre, which had it succeeded, would have amounted to a virtuoso political triumph, perhaps with Josh Frydenberg losing his seat while the coalition was still returned to office, although this outcome would still have ensured Peter Dutton’s eventual elevation to the prime ministership as the confirmed immediate successor to Scott Morrison.
Will Peter Dutton Pursue a Lasch Strategy?
Even though Peter Dutton as Opposition Leader will talk the talk about the Liberal Party being a broad political church it is now expected that he will apply a Lasch political strategy therefore virtually abandoning any serious attempt to regain the blue-ribbon seats which were lost in the May 2022 election and to retain other remaining blue ribbon Liberal seats in future elections.
The application by Peter Dutton of a Lasch political strategy might well be aided by the Albanese government’s economic ineffectiveness. Nevertheless, the new federal government is already adroitly blaming the preceding federal coalition government for Australia’s economic problems which might be an indicator that the ALP is incapable of overcoming these contemporary challenges.
For it is yet to be seen whether the new Treasurer Dr. Jim Chalmers and the new Finance Minister Senator Katy Gallagher have either the willingness or the technical capacity to pay down Australia’s massive one trillion-dollar public foreign debt which is a primary cause of the ever-spiralling cost of living crisis which now threatens Australia’s socio-economic status as a first world nation.
Should the Albanese government fall into the Keating trap of failing to address the public foreign debt while pursuing politically correct social policies (such as mandating emissions targets) then this government will pave the way for Peter Dutton to win power at the next federal election through the application of a Lasch political strategy. A Dutton led coalition government will be similar to the Howard government (1996 to 2007) in that it will cultivate the support of working Australians while applying neo-liberal policies (portrayed as traditional liberal policies) which will ultimately sell them out.
The above cited tragic scenario occurred in late 2005 when the Howard government passed the so-called Work Choices (No Choices) legislation. Even though the Howard government had helped facilitate the attainment of higher living standards by 2007, enough of the Howard Battlers turned on the coalition due to the No Choices industrial relations regime so that the ALP won the November 2007 federal election in which John Howard, the battlers so-called friend, deservedly lost his parliamentary seat.
The Need to Break with Australia’s Neo-Liberal Cycle
Due to Australia’s massive public foreign debt there needs to be a circuit breaker which ends the tragic cycle of going from politically correct neo-liberal ALP governments to anti-employee rights coalition governments which cultivate and then betray working Australians. Alas, it is highly improbable that such a circuit breaker will eventuate in the foreseeable future because of the current balance of political dynamics.
Because a politically correct Albanese Labor government will probably economically falter, this government might very well during the current parliamentary term call a referendum to recognise local government in the Constitution. This referendum proposal was legislated for by the Gillard government during its last week in office in 2013. Presently, there is no indication that such a referendum proposal will be put to the Australian people, but that does not mean that those who believe in states should not be vigilant.
If such a referendum proposal passes, then state governments will not be immediately abolished. However, the creation of new super regional councils which will be directly funded by Canberra could ensure a process by which state government functions are transferred to the Commonwealth and subsequently administered by these newly created regional councils so that the states will eventually be phased out.
Under this new regional regime, amalgamated industrial trade unions such as the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union (CFMMEU) will have control of many of the new regional bailiwicks due to their having the requisite capital and human resources because of their massive economies of scale to run for and gain election in these areas. There may be elements within corporate Australia which naively believe that they too can similarly control new super regional councils.
However, the recent successes of the ‘teal’ independents demonstrate that well-funded grass-roots campaigns can succeed. Indeed, there may be denial in Liberal Party and National Party ranks that the success of the ‘teals’ can only be achieved in wealthy inner suburban seats. This is not the case!
The Mc Gowan Model
Indeed, the model for the teal candidate’s successes was first formulated and developed by Cathy Mc Gowan who won the north-eastern Victorian regional federal seat of Indi in 2013 as an independent. The Mc Gowan model was one where with the recruitment of a dedicated cadre of campaigners, the utilization of the latest digital technology and old-fashioned footslogging, a campaign was conducted to successfully win over uncommitted voters as well as rusted on Liberal voters.
The Mc Gowan model could be replicated with regard to the election of new future regional councils thereby providing a ‘teal’ type of operation with the capacity to institutionalise by having access to patronage and resources. Should such a scenario come to pass then the ultimate viability of the Liberal and National parties will be fundamentally endangered. Therefore, the onset of regionalisation not only threatens the continued existence of Australian states but also of the two coalition parties.
The best way to avoid the above cited scenario is for the Dutton led federal coalition to oppose a future referendum proposal that local government be recognised in the Constitution. If the Liberal Party is to revive, then let this mainstay of Australian politics return to its Menzian roots by cultivating its branches as the depositories of human resource talent. Consequently, there needs to be an early pre-selection (at least eighteen months out from an election) of candidates so that these Liberal contenders can utilize and/or recruit new talent into the branches in order to conduct a campaign of at least similar intensity as that undertaken by the ‘teals’.
A return to the past Liberal Party tradition of respecting and harnessing human resource talent in its branches will also mean respecting branch autonomy so that socially liberal policy positions such as support for refuges can be espoused. The recent May 2022 federal election results and the success of the ‘teals’ also indicated that there is a sufficient critical mass for a new socially liberal political party similar to the now nearly extinct Australian Democrats. However, should the Liberals and Nationals fight to retain states then these two major political parties may well survive and prosper into the future by also being underpinned by strong branches within a federal Westminister parliamentary system.
The Nexus between Social Democracy and States Rights
For those readers who may think that SAA is becoming a pro-Liberal Party operation it should be restated that SAA is still orientated toward Labor governments. The Malinauskas ALP state government in South Australia is a government which SAA gives its qualified support to. However, unless the Liberal Party returns to its historical roots by wholeheartedly supporting party branch democracy and defending state rights then they may well be no Malinauskas government to support because states may be eventually phased out.
[1] Katherine Deves was specifically and directly chosen as the Liberal Party’s candidate for Warringah by the then Prime Minister Scott Morrison as a so-called ‘Captain’s pick’