As a social democratic operation, Social Action Australia (SAA) is orientated towards, but not necessarily committed to, the election of Labor state and federal governments. It is with this qualification in mind that SAA advocates the re-election of the Morrison federal coalition government in the upcoming May 2022 federal election.
This advocacy is made on a two-fold basis. First, this federal coalition government has a positive record to draw on based upon its adroit handling of the Covid pandemic. Second, that the alternative federal opposition led by Anthony Albanese is too great a threat to Australia’s current constitutional federal-state arrangements.
It should also not be forgotten that Australia is still in a socio-economically precarious position as this nation transitions away from the danger-zone of the massive negative impact of the Covid pandemic. Accordingly, an Albanese government cannot be trusted to competently adapt to the dangerous socio-economic situation that Australia finds itself in because the federal opposition leader hails from the hard left of the Australian Labor Party (ALP).
Reference will therefore be made in this article to the veiled economic incompetence of the Daniel Andrews government in Victoria with regard to the ticking public debt bomb because this state government is something of a template which an Albanese government would most probably utilise.
Why is Australia so Prosperous?
Australia is domestically and internationally known as the ‘lucky country’ as since the turn of the twentieth century this nation has consistently had a continuously high standard of living. A major determinant of this outcome has been consistent international demand for Australia’s primary resources such as wool, beef and minerals. However, other nations also endowed with ample primary resources (such as Argentina at the turn of the twentieth century) have not fared as well as Australia.
A secret to Australia’s success has been that with the massive population influx which commenced with the 1850s gold rushes came a strong services sector, which continues to this very day and continues to underpin and sustains Australia’s still generally high standard of living.
The supply chains which were established throughout the Australian colonies in the nineteenth century based upon primary produce drove the generation of a goods and services sector in which there were comparatively high paying jobs. The dependence upon the primary sector became glaringly apparent when the floor price for wool in the 1890s temporarily collapsed, leading to Australia’s worst economic crisis to date. The 1890s economic depression also precipitated massive industrial unrest.
To adapt to the socio-economic consequences of the 1890s Great Depression the political leaders of the then Australian colonies moved the continent toward federation which became a reality in early 1901. Paul Kelly in his very important 1992 book The End of Certainty (Allen and Unwin) wrote that the respective colonies of Victoria and New South Wales responded differently to the 1850s gold rush induced population explosion. Victoria responded by adopting an economically protectionist approach while New South Wales adopted a free trade regime.
The Protectionist State: 1904 to 1983
The protectionist paradigm was thankfully adopted federally by Australia’s political leaders and in part was crucially facilitated by the landmark passage of The Conciliation and Arbitration Act 1904 (the 1904 Act) which ushered in centralized wage fixing following the issuing of a minimum wage which came with the famous Harvester Judgement of 1907.
Business was prepared to accept what became Australian industrial arbitration because this practice allowed craft-based Australian trade unions to effectively represent their members’ interests without having to resort to often unnecessary industrial disputation[1].
To complement and/or reinforce state intervention in wage determination the new nation also imposed tariffs on imported goods, with federal governments also later providing industry assistance to some sectors of the economy especially in the manufacturing sector.
The protectionist state which Australia became between the early 1900s and the 1980s also diversified the economy by value-adding to the primary sector. Consequently, when the was a decline in international demand for Australia’s primary products there was a domestic manufacturing sector to fall back upon which also helped to underpin the employment generating services sector.
The Morrison Government Saved the Vital Service Sector
At this juncture it should be pointed out that the Morrison/Frydenberg federal government in 2020 and 2021 took the correct neo-protectionist policy approach of rescuing the services sector of the economy via the application of the Job Keeper programme in response to the effect of the Covid pandemic.
Job Keeper was essentially a wages subsidy which saved thousands of small to medium businesses in the private sector which otherwise would have ‘gone to the wall’. The payment of subsidised wages prevented the collapse of the services sector of the Australian economy in which an estimated seven hundred thousand jobs were directly saved and probably even more indirectly if an applicable multiplier effect is calculated.
It is ironic, but in all probability the neo-liberal Labor governments of Bob Hawke and Paul Keating probably would not have applied an economically interventionist programme such as Job Keeper. This is because, Australia adopted an economic rationalist (sic) paradigm following the March 1983 election of the Hawke ALP federal government which had the ultimate effect of greatly diminishing Australia’s domestic manufacturing sector.
Consequently, this nation has become even more reliant upon its services sector. In this context, the Covid pandemic has probably posed a greater economic challenge then when the international price for Australian wool collapsed in the 1890s, because the services sector was so fundamentally threatened by the Covid pandemic.
Australia under the Morrison government has been able to finance the Job Keeper and Job Seeker programmes, due to massive borrowings so that the nation’s foreign debt now stands at over a trillion Australian dollars!
This colossal foreign public debt is currently not a threat to Australia’s socio-economic well-being while this nation retains a strong credit rating (currently triple A) so that international lenders are still prepared to lend to Australia. The maintenance of a healthy credit rating also assists Australia to service its now massive public foreign debt.
Factors which have helped underpin this credit rating have included the current high international demand for Australian primary product exports such as iron ore as well as domestic factors including Australia’s excellent banking sector.
However, Australia’s astronomically high public debt means that it will soon have to be reined in while the country’s economic fundamentals remain sound. The Morrison government will be able to pay down the foreign debt without resort to high interest rates and avoid an inflationary spiral by pursuing policies which continue to safeguard its current strong credit rating.
Victoria’s Ticking Debt Bomb
By contrast, a possible indication of how an Albanese government might mishandle Australia’s fragile economic situation is the high level of public debt which the Victorian state ALP government has accumulated. Victoria by 2025 will owe an estimated $160 billion in state debt![2].
The associated blowout in public works spending will serve to further complicate the servicing of Victoria’s public debt so that it well may be a blessing in disguise for the Victorian Liberals if they lose the November 2022 state election.
The economic picture for Victoria may well be dire but this is not yet clearly apparent to the public. Therefore, the subsequent question emerges as to whether the ALP can be trusted at a federal level in a time when it is imperative that Australia’s strong credit rating be preserved with the foreign debt so high and in a time of great international uncertainty?
An Albanese government is an unknown quantity to the public because the federal opposition leader has made himself such a ‘small target’ by dealing in platitudes as to what a future government of his would actually do without being prepared at this stage to provide a specific policy programme. By contrast the public have a clearer picture as to what Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg stand for, particularly with regard to national security.
The Chinese Communist Party Challenge
It is stating the obvious that Australia faces a profound national security concern with Communist China, the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Prime Minister Morrison has been correct to call into question Anthony Albanese’s national security credentials with regard to mainland China.
This is particularly so in the context of the comments of former Labor prime minister, Paul Keating, that nations such as Australia should acquiesce to communist mainland China’s forcibly taking over the Republic of China on Taiwan (ROC). Let Anthony Albanese publicly repudiate Keating’s perspective on Taiwan as a first sign to indicate that the ALP can be trusted to stand up to communist China.
It is now all the more imperative that the federal Opposition Leader publicly support the ROC in the wake of Russia’s February 2022 heinous invasion of Ukraine. Arguably, this egregious violation of international law might not have occurred had US president; Joe Biden not precipitously abandoned the Afghan people to the Taliban thereby signalling weakness to Moscow and Beijing.
Similarly, an Albanese government might convey weakness to the Chinese Communist Party by adopting the Keating line with regard to Taiwan. The Morrison government by contrast has effectively moved to safeguard Australia’s national security by forming the AUKUS alliance constating of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The recent development of the Quad formation of Australia, the United States, India and Japan is also testament to the Morrison government’s proactive approach to foreign affairs and national security. Such an approach is required if Australia is to safeguard her independence from an increasingly bellicose and threatening communist mainland China.
It is a matter of urgency that a bi-partisan commitment to sending lethal military aid to the Republic of China on Taiwan should be in place in the event that the ROC comes under attack from the communist mainland. A pre-emptive public commitment by Prime Minister Morrison that Australia will come to Taiwan’s aid should be unequivocally supported by the federal Labor leader.
The Threat of Regionalisation
With the stakes so high it is bewildering that there well may be elements within the federal coalition which covertly desires an Albanese government on the basis that it will introduce Regionalisation. The issue of Regionalisation has been analysed in previous SAA articles as well as the associated issue of past inter-party collusion to advance the
Regionalisation agenda.
The most dramatic example of this interparty collusion was the 2007 fall of the Howard government to try and ensure that there would be a transition to Regionalisation so that states would be gradually phased out. The replacement of Kevin Rudd as prime minister in June 2010 by Julia Gillard stifled the regionalisation agenda as did Malcolm Turnbull’s September 2015 deposition of Tony Abbott as prime minister.
Not only did the respective advents of Julia Gillard and Malcolm Turnbull delay the introduction of Regionalisation but both these leaders were opposed by political forces that want to dismember Australian states, (especially the Greens Party). It should not be forgotten that in late 2009 Malcolm Turnbull lost the Liberal Party leadership due to his courageous support for an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).
Almost inexplicably, the Greens voted down the proposed ETS legislation in their balance of power position in the Senate in early 2010. However, nearly two years later the Greens voted in favour of a Carbon Tax which consequently doomed the Gillard government. Perhaps, the Greens regarded a Carbon Tax as being a superior environmental tool to that of an ETS to counter climate change.
However, another interpretation of the Greens’ voting intentions was that their senior leadership desired there to be a future Abbott government so that Regionalisation could later be introduced. As analysed in previous SAA articles there was probable collusion between anti-state elements within the two major parties to co-ordinate the outcome of the August 2010 federal election. Knowing this, Prime Minister Julia Gillard made her public declaration during the campaign that if elected, a government which she led would not introduce a carbon tax.
The breaking of this no Carbon Tax promise by Prime Minister Gillard with the passage of such legislation in early 2012 destined the Gillard government to future political demise. It is widely accepted that, had Julia Gillard faced the voters in 2013 as prime minister, her government would have been voted out in a landslide.
The Greens could have saved the Gillard government by voting against a Carbon Tax on the basis of their advocating an ETS. This did not occur because the senior leadership of the Greens probably wanted Regionalisation introduced by an Abbott government. Thankfully, Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister in September 2015 so that the agenda of dismembering Australian states was disrupted.
The respective advent of strong-willed persons such as Julia Gillard and Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister may have disrupted the onset of the Regionalisation agenda but has not yet necessarily terminated it. There can be little doubt that should Anthony Albanese put his mind to it as prime minister that he will aggressively pursue a Regionalisation agenda in accordance with the long- term strategy of the hard left of Australian politics.
The Hard Left’s Long-Term Agenda
A brief overview of the hard left’s strategy for political power and economic control is therefore undertaken to gain a possible insight into the probable policy direction of an Albanese government.
The hard left of the Labor Party and the union movement back in the 1980s enunciated a policy of trade union amalgamation with the 1988 release of the Australian Council of Trade Unions’ (ACTU) Australia Reconstructed report.
The model of Australian trade unionism fundamentally changed in the 1990s, as in accordance with Australia Reconstructed there was a transition away from craft-based trade unions to super amalgamated trade unions.
The transition to amalgamated trade unions saw a mass exodus of union members from the Australian union movement in the 1990s because the former membership did not feel an affinity with and were isolated by the new amalgamated unions.
Nevertheless, the creation of so-called super unions such as the Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union (CFMEU) saw a new concentration of power develop within the Socialist Left (SL) of the ALP. It is therefore a plausible scenario that under an Albanese government that regional fiefdoms could be created which would be dominated by hard-left industry unions such as the CFMEU[3].
Consequently, an Albanese government could intend to implement Regionalisation according to a hard-left agenda because post-Morrison Liberals and Nationals will have little if any political leverage to affect the Regionalisation process.
Why Regionalisation Threatens the Coalition Parties
Furthermore, those elements within the Liberal and the Nationals parties which hanker for Regionalisation should realize that their respective parties will probably not survive the onset of Regionalisation in their current form. This is because political parties such as One Nation and the United Australia Party (UAP) will probably gain access to the patronage of the newly created super regional councils. As a result of this, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party and the UAP will be able to institutionalize themselves within Australian politics at the expense of the Liberal and Nationals parties.
The Nationals Party is even more at risk than the Liberal Party should Regionalisation be introduced. In addition to the One Nation threat to the Nationals, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFF) will impose an existential threat to the Nationals’ existence if able to gain access to the expected regional largess arising from the adoption of Regionalisation generally. and the subsequent creation of new regional fiefdoms throughout the country.
For in truth, the Liberal and Nationals parties owe their dominance, if not their survival, to the operation of a Westminster parliamentary system which is conducive to a two-party political system. Should Regionalisation be introduced at the expense of states (which have Westminister parliamentary systems) then Australia will transition from a two-party political system to a multi-party system.
Sabotage Watch
The above scenario is canvassed on the basis that officials and politicians within the Liberal and Nationals parties will sabotage the Morrison government’s 2022 re-election campaign. Already, the UAP have run newspaper ads referring to Barnaby Joyce having ‘trashed’ Scott Morrison which is an indication that discord on the centre-right can actually constitute (or be converted into) political sabotage.
The UAP may have failed to win any federal parliamentary seats in the 2019 federal election despite all the money the money spent by Clive Palmer. Nevertheless, it does appear that the UAP’s 2019 campaign contributed to the Morrison government’s upset election victory.
That the UAP’s advertising, now adopting a clearer anti-coalition stance for the 2022 federal election campaign, may well be an indication that Clive Palmer expects an Albanese government to introduce Regionalisation. A party such as the UAP will find it easier to win access to political patronage via super regional councils than in winning parliamentary representation in state and federal parliaments.
Similarly, it may seem politically more expedient for the Nationals to off-set their relatively low (but reliable) nationwide voting base by helping to engineer a transition to Regionalisation. Nevertheless, there are still leaders within the coalition who will fight to actually win the 2022 federal election including the Prime Minister and the Treasurer.
The late January 2022 memorial service in Melbourne for former Liberal federal leader Andrew Peacock (who died in April 2021) was probably utilized by Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg as an opportunity to lobby senior Victorian Liberals to remain loyal to their party in the upcoming federal election.
Similarly, the Western Australian Liberals (who were reduced to a mere two seats in the state lower house of parliament following the March 2021 state election) may see Regionalisation as an attractive option. However, all Regionalisation will ultimately serve to accomplish is the institutionalisation of the dominance of the hard left (i.e., the SL of the ALP and the Greens) in Australian politics with the political right becoming rent-seeking scavengers.
Regionalisation will be a gradual but inexorable process as resources and functions will be transferred from the states to new super-regional councils which will ultimately be linked to Canberra. Such a process will be a protracted affair which will endanger Australia’s sound credit rating, the maintenance of which will be essential if this nation is to economically survive and service the massive public foreign debt which accrued due to the Covid pandemic.
With socio-economic stakes so high the Morrison government cannot afford to lose the May 2022 federal election. Because Prime Minister Morrison controls the federal and state Liberal Party secretariats, he can wage a bona fide campaign to overcome potential sabotage within the coalition’s ranks.
Therefore, the Morrison government can conduct a truthful election campaign warning the Australian people of the economic dangers which Australia is currently facing due to the astronomical public foreign debt that this nation has accumulated as a result of the exigencies wrought by the Covid pandemic.
The ACTU’s Version of Work Choices (sic)
The other area which Prime Minister Morrison can campaign on is industrial relations (IR). The ACTU has released an IR policy advocating that wages be set on an industry/occupation basis. Such a radical policy shift can only be facilitated by utilizing the corporations power of the Australian constitution.
This ACTU policy deviates from the current system in which enterprise bargaining determines wage levels underpinned by award minimums with this safety net extending to those employees not covered by Enterprise Bargaining Agreements (EBAs).
The Liberals are understandably wary of campaigning on IR issues given the public’s memory of the Howard government’s 2005 Work Choices (sic, No Choices) legislation. However, Prime Minister Morrison could graciously publicly pay tribute to Julia Gillard for her facilitating the passage of the 2009 Fair Work Australia legislation which thankfully repealed the No Choices IR regime.
A Liberal Party campaign in which the current Fair Work Act (2009) is endorsed would send a clear signal that the current IR system will be retained by the federal coalition. The current Fair Work Australia IR system achieves a brilliant balance between socio-financial equity and economic flexibility due to the high importance which is assigned to enterprise bargaining.
By contrast the ACTU’s current IR proposals are socially and economically dangerous because they will impose too much of a high wages burden on employers as Australia transitions to a post-Covid context. Historically, the hard left of the Australian union movement argued that the arbitral supports which the 1904 Act ushered in created an over-reliance by unions upon arbitration which undermined union effectiveness, - the so-called Howard Dependency Syndrome.
It is therefore ironic that the ACTU is now advocating a statutory enhancement of union power when the hard left of the labour movement had previously derided state sanctioned arbitration as an impediment to union effectiveness.
The ACTU should also be careful as to what they wish for with regard to utilizing the constitution’s corporations’ powers as the New Zealand experience attests.
A New Zealand Labour government passed the Employee Relations Act (
ERA, 2000) which paradoxically facilitated further de-unionisation! The ERA’s detailed statutory employment minimums had the effect of removing the need for enterprise bargaining in the private sector so that there was consequently a decreased scope for union interaction with their members.
If there is to be an Australian union resurgence let it be by dent of unions engaging with employees via enterprise bargaining. There is sufficient scope for enterprise bargaining to occur under the Fair Work Australia Act (2009) so that Australian unions can reach out to employees to effectively represent (and to recruit) them.
The statutory minimums of Fair Work are also sufficient to protect employee rights and to allow employees to be effectively represented by unions without causing an undue burden for employers so that there will not consequently be a substantial increase in unemployment. By contrast, too many employees may well lose their jobs as a result of the ACTU’s IR policies being implemented by an Albanese government.
A massive increase in unemployment will place too great a strain on a social security system which is now already too reliant upon overseas borrowing. Further massive indebtedness would also only serve to jeopardize Australia’s sound credit ratings.
This coalition federal government has already demonstrated great competence in adroitly handling this Covid pandemic. Consequently, the Morrison/Frydenberg federal government has a campaign narrative by which to appeal to the Australian people to trust this leadership team to steer Australia out of the profoundly dangerous socio-economic waters which this nation currently remains in.
[1] There were of course exceptions to this pluralist industrial relations regime such as the Australian waterfront
[2] The Australian, Guy turns down the volume and sharpens Liberals’ focus, John Ferguson, page 32, 26-27th February 2022,
[3] The CFMEU is now known as the CFMMEU because of further amalgamations with the addition of the maritime and textile unions under its expanded banner.