Dr. David Bennett re-assesses the Trump Administration’s Ukraine policy to advocate that Europe should, if necessarily, militarily intervene to save Ukraine. 

 Assumptions made in the previous Social Action Australia (SAA) article- ‘China’s Ukraine Trap’- require re-assessment in the wake of the Trump Administration’s action in recently terminating military aid (including invaluable intelligence sharing) with Ukraine.  Misassumptions were made in this previously published article concerning the motivation and the consequent willingness of the Trump Administration to genuinely mediate a quick settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian War (2022- ). 

Invoking the maxim ‘that actions speak louder than words’ the termination of American aid to Ukraine raises the spectre that the Trump Administration is actually colluding with the Russian Federation in its quest to conquer Ukraine.  President Donald J Trump may make the bizarre demand that Ukraine cede its rare earth resources to the United States in return for renewed American assistance, but this demand only buttresses the misimpression that the Americans are still prepared to eventually help Ukraine.

Alas, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seems to be falling for this ruse by desperately trying to re-engage the Americans by offering them control of Ukraine’s rare earth resources.  However, the Ukrainian president and his European allies are only being ‘strung along’ by the Americans until the onset of the European spring this year when the Russian army can launch its final military offensive.

Given the termination of American military aid, it is difficult to envisage that Ukraine can survive the onset of a Russian Spring Offensive this year without European military assistance in the form of despatching troops to fight against the Russians.  British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are assembling a ‘Coalition of the Willing’ of European nations which are prepared to send troops to Ukraine. 

However, this European military force is currently envisaged as a peace-keeping force for after a political settlement has been negotiated which ends the Russo-Ukrainian War.  The problem with this scenario is that it will be too late because the Russians will not negotiate a political settlement when the military advantage is now with Moscow due to the termination of American aid to Ukraine. 

Should the Russians succeed in conquering Ukraine then they will have a future launching pad in the coming years to invade other eastern and central European nations.  Even though the Russian army has fought poorly in Ukraine, Moscow will still militarily prevail (as it is now poised to do in Ukraine) due to the absence of American military protection for the European continent. 

To prevent this horrifying scenario from occurring the European Coalition of the Willing must quickly announce its preparedness to send troops to fight in Ukraine unless the Russians agree to an immediate cease-fire and to participate in negotiations (which must include European nations) for a treaty to end the Russo-Ukrainian War.     

                                                                                                                                        The Peace Paradox of Mutually Assured Destruction

Sending European troops to Ukraine will tip the military balance in favour of Ukraine which raises the frightening prospect that Putin will resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.  However, because Britan and France can retaliate with their nuclear weapons the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) will remain in place therefore deterring the Russian president from using tactical nuclear weapons.

It could be argued that the MAD doctrine will not deter Putin because he is too irrational.  As malevolent as the Russian dictator is, he is still rational in relative terms.  Indeed, Putin is a brilliant tactician and strategist.  This was evident concerning Putin’s cultivation of the Trump camp back in 2016 when Russian on-line disinformation swung the American presidential election that year against Hilliary Clinton. 

Having unexpectantly won the US presidency in 2016, Donald Trump did not really ‘find his feet’ during his first presidency.  This period was a steep learning curve for Trump so that when he was out of office during the Biden presidency (2017 to 2021) the former American president utilized his newly acquired skills to assemble a formidable coalition to win back the presidency in 2024. 

All then might have been well for the United States and the world had a relaunched Donald Trump not still being in thrall of Vladimir Putin or at least covertly supportive of the Russian leader’s agenda in the coming years to militarily re-conquer central and eastern Europe. 

                                                                                                                                              Why History Must Not Repeat Itself

Unfortunately, non-Make America Great Again (MAGA) Republicans such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio now seem to be supporting President Trump’s covert pro-Putin foreign policy.  Alas, it can be said of Secretary Rubio that he is helping to ‘string along’ the Ukrainians and the Europeans by talking up the prospect of negotiations with Russia as Moscow prepares to launch its final 2025 Spring Offensive against Ukraine. 

As a Cuban American, Secretary Rubio should know better than to in effect support Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Cuban people were sold out by the Kennedy Administration’s refusal to provide continued air support for the heroes of Brigade 2506 who had landed at the Bay of Pigs in southeastern Cuba in April 1961.  Furthermore, the Castro dictatorship could have not have subsequently survived had the Soviet Union not resourced communist Cuba.

Secretary of State Rubio should therefore genuinely support Ukraine by endorsing the immediate despatch of European troops to Ukraine unless Rusia agrees to an immediate ceasefire and to participate in negotiations for a treaty to end the Russo-Ukrainian War which include the Europeans. 

                                                                                                                                                                 The Need of Forward Defence

Already, Australia has announced its willingness to despatch troops to join of the European Coalition of the Willing as part of a postwar political settlement.  However, foreign troops are needed now as a matter of urgency to militarily support Ukraine in a combat capacity unless Russia agrees to an immediate cease-fire.  The willingness of Australia’s centre-left Albanese to support Ukraine is commendable and is a manifestation of Australia’s traditional Forward Defence doctrine whereby Aussie troops are despatched abroad to fight as a form of preventative maintenance. 

Australia’s Forward Defence Doctrine has much to recommend it.  It is pleasing that the centre-left government of Sir Keir Starmer in Britan and France’s Emmanuel Macron’s centrist government are also prepared to support Ukraine.  Indeed, both Britan and France face the future prospect of far-right parties (i.e.  France’s National Rally and Britan’s UK Reform Party) being elected to power which might serve to ultimately assist in advancing Putin’s agenda of dominating Europe. 

However, timing is of the essence because the option of sending foreign troops to Ukraine must be urgently considered as an immediate priority given the Trump Administration’s collusion with Putin’s Russia.   While there is still time, Europe must, if need be, go against Trump’s America by rallying to Ukraine’s cause by despatching combat troops to that nation.    It is not too late to despatch European troops to Ukraine because of geographical proximity.